Projections

Historical age distribution and population projection (component method – see also "Other assumptions")

Type

Region / Municipality

Base year:

Target year: (Projection)

Projection method

Cohort shift Detailed age model: TFR slider, selectable life expectancy and migration age groups. Age structure changes year by year. Component method Birth, death and migration rates automatically derived from all data years and extrapolated. No manual TFR override. Linear trend extrapolation Linear trend is extrapolated. Age structure of the base year is scaled proportionally. Exponential extrapolation Average growth rate is extrapolated constantly. Suitable for regions with stable growth or stable decline. Component + Migration Historical TFR and mortality – freely configurable migration age groups. For municipal recruitment scenarios. PDE Scenario (IIASA) An extension of the PDE model: TFR, life expectancy, sex ratio freely adjustable with linear interpolation – plus detailed net migration by age group (same cluster module as cohort shift).

TFR: children/woman

0,80 2,10 ⚖ 3,50

Sweden Ø 2020–2024: ~1.67 · Replacement level: 2.10

Life expectancy

Base (constant) Optimistic (same increase as to date) Increasing (+2 yrs by 2075)

Net migration p.a. (persons/year)

Positive values = immigration, negative = emigration.

0–19 yrs (children/youth)

20–39 yrs (working age)

40–59 yrs (middle age)

60+ yrs (seniors)

PDE Scenario – Parameters

TFR (target)

0,502,105,00

Life expectancy e₀ (target)

6095

Sex ratio at birth (SRB)

1,001,051,10

TFR and life expectancy are linearly interpolated. Migration is controlled via the "Net migration p.a." cluster module (on the right).

Base year (actual data)

Target year

Key figures: base year → target year

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Location

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Age distribution target year

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Export

Export pyramids, key figures, map and age distribution as PDF.