Projections

Historical age distribution and population projection (component method – see also "Other assumptions")

Type

Region / Municipality

Base year:

Target year: (Projection)

Projection method

Cohort shift Detailed age model: TFR slider, selectable life expectancy and migration age groups. Age structure changes year by year. Component method Birth, death and migration rates automatically derived from all data years and extrapolated. No manual TFR override. Linear trend extrapolation Linear trend is extrapolated. Age structure of the base year is scaled proportionally. Exponential extrapolation Average growth rate is extrapolated constantly. Suitable for regions with stable growth or stable decline. Component + Migration Historical TFR and mortality – freely configurable migration age groups. For municipal recruitment scenarios. PDE Scenario (IIASA) All parameters user-defined: TFR, life expectancy, immigration, emigration, sex ratio. Linear interpolation from base to target value.

TFR: children/woman

0,80 2,10 ⚖ 3,50

Sweden Ø 2020–2024: ~1.67 · Replacement level: 2.10

Life expectancy

Base (constant) Optimistic (same increase as to date) Increasing (+2 yrs by 2075)

Net migration p.a. (persons/year)

Positive values = immigration, negative = emigration.

0–19 yrs (children/youth)

20–39 yrs (working age)

40–59 yrs (middle age)

60+ yrs (seniors)

PDE Scenario – Parameters

TFR (target)

0,502,105,00

Life expectancy e₀ (target)

6095

Immigration (pers./year)

Emigration (pers./year)

Net migration (calculated)

Sex ratio at birth (SRB)

1,001,051,10

TFR and life expectancy are linearly interpolated from the historical base value to the user-defined target value.

Base year (actual data)

Target year

Key figures: base year → target year

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Location

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Age distribution target year

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Export

Export pyramids, key figures, map and age distribution as PDF.